New independent estimates Monday night show that as many as 3.8 million people would lose their food stamp benefits in 2014 under a House Republican plan to tighten eligibility and end state waivers for able-bodied adults who are unemployed.
The Congressional Budget Office numbers paint a darker picture than the GOP has admitted to thus far. The contradictions – which continued to play out Monday afternoon — add to the tensions surrounding what is already a bitter fight over the nutrition title of the House farm bill.
According to the CBO, 1.7 million people would be forced off the rolls in the coming year if the state waivers are repealed as proposed by Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.). Another 2.1 million would be dropped in 2014 as a result of the tighter eligibility rules backed by the GOP.
In both cases, the impact would decline as the economy improves and more jobs become available. But on average, CBO estimates that a total of 2.8 million people would lose their benefits over the next decade, and another 850,000 households will see an average reduction of about $90 a month in benefits….
As filed Monday, the measure is titled the Nutrition Reform and Work Opportunity Act and is being billed as Welfare Reform 2.0.
The stated goal is to toughen existing work requirements for food stamps while also preserving the core program for the very poor. Cantor consulted with conservatives before crafting the package and the Heritage Foundation, with close ties to Cantor’s policy staff, is an important ally and influence.
Caught in the middle are states like Washington and New York which are already using federal funds to teach job skills to food stamp recipients but could lose millions in aid if they were to fail to comply with the new direction set by the bill.
Mothers with preschool children would face tougher work requirements. At the same time, the CBO score suggests that some of the most-contentious pilot programs in the package could end up adding to federal costs — not savings.
More from David Rogers@ Politico
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